Big Snubs and Shaky Predictions: It's Time for Reno's Annual Academy Award Preview

Snubbed by Oscar: Steve Coogan and John C Reilly as Stan & Ollie

I’ve been pretty good at predicting Oscar winners over the years. But this is a tough one. I do believe there may be some surprises tonight at the 91st Academy Awards.

But before I give you my predictions, let me first share with my fellow movie fans a few of what I believe are the worst snubs this year by the sometimes-clueless and petty Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences. There were even more snubs by Academy voters than usual this year. Here are the ones that irked me the most:

* No nominations (and virtually no recognition of any kind)  for Stan & Ollie, one of the best films of this year. A calm, poignant, brilliantly acted salute to the greatest comedy team of all time -- Stan Laurel and Oliver Hardy -- this was my personal favorite film of the year. And Steve Coogan and John C Reilly, who we know mostly from his broad comedies with Will Ferrell, are uncannily fine as Stan and Ollie, respectfully. Hardy's performance is every bit as good as Robert Downey Jr.’s Oscar-winning take on Chaplin. In fact it is more nuanced and less showy. But if it's one thing Oscar loves, it's "showy".

* No Best Actor or Supporting Actress nominations for Ryan Gosling and Claire Foy for First Man, about legendary American astronaut Neil Armstrong. A micro look at a macro moment in our great contry's history, this the most underrated movie of the year. And the acting performances are inspired. It should also be up for Best Picture. 

* No Best Picture (or Best Director) nomination for If Beale Street Could Talk, which is a compelling and heartbreaking work of art. 

* No directing nomination for Bradley Cooper for A Star is Born. This snub is almost as ridiculous as when Steven Spielberg was not given a Best Director nomination for Jaws, or The Color Purple, or War Horse, or Bridge of Spies, or The Post. Are you freaking kidding me, Oscar?

* No acting nominations for Julia Roberts or Lucas Hedges for Ben is Back, which is the most powerful film yet to tackle America's real national emergency: the opioid crisis. These two performances were just so real. No pretense. It’s the strongest performance of Roberts’ career, Pretty Woman pales in comparison.

* No Best Actress nomination for Emily Blunt for the title role in Mary Poppins. She was perfection in a role that of course everyone on earth links to Julie Andrews, the original screen Mary. Emily, who is charismatic and a tremendous singer, made the character her own.

* No nominations for Eighth Grade, which was hard to watch at times but is a superb look at teen anxiety and the accompanying explosion of social media. 

* No Acting nominations for either Michael B Jordan of Sylvester Stallone for Creed 2. Sly should have won for Best Supporting Actor in 2016 for the first Creed.

* No Best Documentary nomination for Won't You Be My Neighbor?, a smart, touching look at the late Fred Rogers of Mister Rogers' Neighborhood fame. This is easily the most engrossing doc' of the year.

OK, so you want winners? I got winners. Here, for what they are worth, are my predictions:

Best Picture 

Will win - Roma

Possible surprises - Green Book or BlacKkKlansman

Should Win - Roma

Lead Actress

Will Win - Glenn Close, The Wife

Possible surprise - Olivia Coleman, The Favourite 

Deserves to win - Olivia Coleman (best performance by any actor this year)

Lead Actor

Will Win - Rami Male, Bohemian Rhapsody

Possible surprise - Bradley Cooper or Christian Bale

Deserves to win - Bradley Cooper

Supporting Actress

Will win - Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk

Possible surprise - Rachel Weisz, The Favourite

Deserves to win - Regina King

Supporting Actor

Will win - Mahershala Ali - Green Book

Possible surprise - Richard E. Grant - Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Deserves to win - Mahershala Ali

Best Director 

Will win - Alfonso Cuaron - Roma 

Possible surprise - Spike Lee - BlacKkKlansman

Deserves to win - Alfonso Cuaron

Best Animated Feature

Will win - Spider-Man

Possible surprise: Incredibles 2

Deserves to win - Spider-Man