Big Snubs and Shaky Predictions: It's Time for Reno's Annual Academy Award Preview

Snubbed by Oscar: Steve Coogan and John C Reilly as Stan & Ollie

I’ve been pretty good at predicting Oscar winners over the years. But this is a tough one. I do believe there may be some surprises tonight at the 91st Academy Awards.

But before I give you my predictions, let me first share with my fellow movie fans a few of what I believe are the worst snubs this year by the sometimes-clueless and petty Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences. There were even more snubs by Academy voters than usual this year. Here are the ones that irked me the most:

* No nominations (and virtually no recognition of any kind)  for Stan & Ollie, one of the best films of this year. A calm, poignant, brilliantly acted salute to the greatest comedy team of all time -- Stan Laurel and Oliver Hardy -- this was my personal favorite film of the year. And Steve Coogan and John C Reilly, who we know mostly from his broad comedies with Will Ferrell, are uncannily fine as Stan and Ollie, respectfully. Hardy's performance is every bit as good as Robert Downey Jr.’s Oscar-winning take on Chaplin. In fact it is more nuanced and less showy. But if it's one thing Oscar loves, it's "showy".

* No Best Actor or Supporting Actress nominations for Ryan Gosling and Claire Foy for First Man, about legendary American astronaut Neil Armstrong. A micro look at a macro moment in our great contry's history, this the most underrated movie of the year. And the acting performances are inspired. It should also be up for Best Picture. 

* No Best Picture (or Best Director) nomination for If Beale Street Could Talk, which is a compelling and heartbreaking work of art. 

* No directing nomination for Bradley Cooper for A Star is Born. This snub is almost as ridiculous as when Steven Spielberg was not given a Best Director nomination for Jaws, or The Color Purple, or War Horse, or Bridge of Spies, or The Post. Are you freaking kidding me, Oscar?

* No acting nominations for Julia Roberts or Lucas Hedges for Ben is Back, which is the most powerful film yet to tackle America's real national emergency: the opioid crisis. These two performances were just so real. No pretense. It’s the strongest performance of Roberts’ career, Pretty Woman pales in comparison.

* No Best Actress nomination for Emily Blunt for the title role in Mary Poppins. She was perfection in a role that of course everyone on earth links to Julie Andrews, the original screen Mary. Emily, who is charismatic and a tremendous singer, made the character her own.

* No nominations for Eighth Grade, which was hard to watch at times but is a superb look at teen anxiety and the accompanying explosion of social media. 

* No Acting nominations for either Michael B Jordan of Sylvester Stallone for Creed 2. Sly should have won for Best Supporting Actor in 2016 for the first Creed.

* No Best Documentary nomination for Won't You Be My Neighbor?, a smart, touching look at the late Fred Rogers of Mister Rogers' Neighborhood fame. This is easily the most engrossing doc' of the year.

OK, so you want winners? I got winners. Here, for what they are worth, are my predictions:

Best Picture 

Will win - Roma

Possible surprises - Green Book or BlacKkKlansman

Should Win - Roma

Lead Actress

Will Win - Glenn Close, The Wife

Possible surprise - Olivia Coleman, The Favourite 

Deserves to win - Olivia Coleman (best performance by any actor this year)

Lead Actor

Will Win - Rami Male, Bohemian Rhapsody

Possible surprise - Bradley Cooper or Christian Bale

Deserves to win - Bradley Cooper

Supporting Actress

Will win - Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk

Possible surprise - Rachel Weisz, The Favourite

Deserves to win - Regina King

Supporting Actor

Will win - Mahershala Ali - Green Book

Possible surprise - Richard E. Grant - Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Deserves to win - Mahershala Ali

Best Director 

Will win - Alfonso Cuaron - Roma 

Possible surprise - Spike Lee - BlacKkKlansman

Deserves to win - Alfonso Cuaron

Best Animated Feature

Will win - Spider-Man

Possible surprise: Incredibles 2

Deserves to win - Spider-Man

My Ten Favorite Christmas Movies: Some No-Brainers & Surprises

"Yippie-ki-yay.... and Merry Christmas!!"

Watching movies -- at home and in a movie theater -- is just as much a beloved Christmas tradition in our house as drinking eggnog, kissing under the mistletoe, and shoveling reindeer poop off the roof. Wait, what? You don't shovel reindeer poop off your roof?  Eww....

Below, in no particular order, are my ten favorite Christmas movies of all time. Some of these you'll know, but some you may not. Merry Christmas and happy holidays to all! 

1) The Family Man - This was an instant classic, a new standard, when it came out in 2000. The modern Dickensian tale stars Nicolas Cage (right) as a hapless, hardened Wall Street titan and Tea Leoni as the long-lost love of his life. This hopeful fantasy is actually rooted in reality: It's all about evaluating your life, and learning the encouraging lesson that it's never too late to re-set, to start over and go after what you want rather than what you think you need.

2) Scrooge - This somewhat obscure 1970 musical is a hugely underrated take on "A Christmas Carol," with the great Albert Finney as Ebenezer. Finney is a masterful actor, and this for me is the finest screen performance ever of Scrooge, with terrific songs by Leslie Bricusse. Every bit as good as "Oliver," the Oscar-wining musical take on Dickens' Oliver Twist, Scrooge also stars Alec Guinness as Jacob Marley's ghost. 

3) Christmas Vacation - Another instant classic. Funny, and surprisingly touching, this movie undoubtedly resonates with every American father/husband who wants to give his family a perfect Christmas. This is Chevy Chase at his most endearing and vulnerable.

4) Holiday Affair - Another underrated Christmas film, this 1949 comedy/drama tells the story of a young mother (Janet Leigh) who lost her husband in World War II, and the charismatic stranger (Robert Mitchum) who befriends her and her precocious but likable son, eight-year-old Gordon Gebert. Gebert, who is still alive and was born in my hometown of Des Moines, Iowa, steals every scene he is in. This for me is the best Christmas movie no one knows about... unless you watch Turner Classic Movies. 

5) Die Hard - I mean, what's Christmas without “Yippie ki-yay, mother****er!” Bruce Willis at his beleaguered, charismatic best. And yes, it's a Christmas movie, there are lots of references to the holiday throughout. It begins, you'll recall, on Christmas Eve with Willis’s character John McClane arriving in L.A. to attend his wife’s work Christmas party with the hope of reconnecting with his kids for the holiday. "Winter Wonderland" and "Let It Snow" play during the movie, which may be a bit too violent for some folks’ taste on the holiday, but I find it cathartic. 

6) Bells of St. Mary's - Poignant classic about the goings-on at an inner-city Catholic school with Bing Crosby reprising his Father O'Malley role and Ingrid Bergman as the feisty, big-hearted nun. We watch it every Xmas, and here's some trivia: "Bells of St. Mary's" is the film that appears on the movie theater marquis in a scene from "It's a Wonderful Life," which was released a year later.

7) Just Friends - Ryan Reynolds plays to perfection a former chubby, high-school nerd and now svelte, big-shot Hollywood record producer who reluctantly returns to his hometown for Christmas after a "flyover" flight is forced to land nearby. He reunites with his high school dream girl, played by Amy Smart, who never let him get out of the “friend zone.” He tries to win her over by acting cool, and she rejects him. It’s funny, touching and real. 

8) Elf - Another immediate standard. I've seen this movie at least 15 times. Will Ferrell is a revelation as Buddy the, um, world's tallest elf. He’s pure joy, and freaking hilarious. What better way to explain the movie than to include a couple of lines from Buddy: "We elves try to stick to the four main food groups: candy, candy canes, candy corns and syrup.”    "I planned out our whole day: First, we'll make snow angels for two hours, and then we'll go ice skating, and then we'll eat a whole roll of Toll-House cookie dough as fast as we can, and then to finish, we'll snuggle."    "I'm sorry I ruined your lives and crammed 11 cookies into the VCR."

9) Scrooged - My favorite Christmas comedy/satire, with the inimitable Bill Murray inhabiting the Scrooge character as an insufferably self-centered TV executive. Admittedly, this is a favorite in part 'cuz I covered this film as a journalist for the Los Angeles Times Syndicate in New York in 1988. I got to spend the entire afternoon with Bill Murray. It remains one of the favorite days of my career.

10) It's a Wonderful Life - Last but certainly not least, there is the gold standard of Christmas movies. Frank Capra's heartwarming masterpiece never gets old. There has never been a film that I can name that resonates more deeply with more people. It has universal appeal. And for the record, the common narrative that this film was not popular when it was first released is actually not entirely true. It wasn't a smash hit like some of Capra's movies such as “It Happened One Night" and “Mr. Smith Goes to Washington,” but it did ok, and it was nominated for five Oscars, including Best Picture. It is now widely and deservedly considered the best Christmas movie of all time and, yes, one of the best movies, period.