Cramming for Finals: Can San Diego State Really Win a National Championship This Spring?

SDSU point guard Xavier Thames (right) - AP

The San Diego State Aztecs, who passed a tough road test at Utah State University Saturday night with a 74-69 overtime win, are headed toward the top of the 2014 class. Now ranked #5 in both major national college basketball polls, the 18-1 Aztecs, winners of 17 straight, are cramming for the Final Four in April and a possible national championship.

The national buzz is building for this squad, which is probably the best defensive group in the nation. The Aztecs take the ball away from opponents nearly 9 times a game and give up an average of just 56 points. This group stifles opponents, they chew 'em up and spit 'em out. That message resonated throughout the hallowed Allen Fieldhouse at the University of Kansas earlier this month when SDSU held the Jayhawks to just 20 percent shooting in the first half and went on to beat Kansas 60-57. Kansas almost never loses at home.

Of course, Coach Steve Fisher, who won a national championship at Michigan, has put San Diego State's basketball program on the national map and made this team a perennial power. But that's old news. Even myopic East Coast sportswriters have finally, reluctantly conceded that point.

What is news is the fact that these Aztecs are The Gang That Couldn't Shoot Straight. Yes, as good as they are on defense, they're almost that bad on offense. This team is long and athletic, and can rebound, but other than point guard Xavier Thames, who's making a strong argument for National Player of the Year, SDSU just can't put the rock in the basket -- especially from outside the paint. It's the darndest thing.

Remarkably, this team that almost everyone including me believes could win the national championship in a couple months has a .438 field goal percentage, which is a dismal 207th in the nation, right behind the vaunted 6-12 UTSA Roadrunners! SDSU's free throw shooting blows, too.

As Sports Illustrated basketball writer Pete Thamel said last week, San Diego State is "talented enough to end up in the Final Four, but flawed enough to be home in the second round." Another SI writer, Luke Winn, said recently that SDSU has "great D, but I have reservations that they can score well enough to go on a six-game streak in the tourney."

Nevertheless, you probably don't want to bet against these guys. Yes, I know, it's almost inconceivable that a team that struggles this much to hit its shots could be considered a potential national champion. But these Aztecs are a resolute lot. They're probably the best team in recent college hoops history that can't shoot.

Here's the thing: San Diego State has a phenomenal point guard in Thames who makes everyone around him better, and they're a very hard-working group that gets it done on the court by any means necessary. This team practices as hard as it plays. I think they can overcome this glaring flaw. 

If SDSU can improve its outside shooting just a smidge, and Thames can focus a little more on playing an inside-outside game with senior forward Josh Davis, who's third in the nation in rebounding but has the ability to be more of a go-to scorer, and if Thames can just slightly hone his penetrate-and-dish skills, this team will win its first national title.

Granted, those are a lot of Ifs. And, too, there are a handful of teams out there that do have the ability to expose SDSU, especially if no one finds his shooting touch. The Aztecs were in fact very lucky to win against Utah State Saturday. Thames had to score 31 points, including 10 in overtime, to get it done. 

Fisher, who is a good man and a tremendous basketball coach, sometimes relies a little too much on his players' natural talent. If he gets credit for the way this team plays on defense, and he should, he must also shoulder some of the blame for the way this team plays on offense. Moving toward March Madness, he needs to maintain this team's defensive intensity but also focus in practice on outside shooting. Anyone who doesn't think shooting is coachable doesn't know basketball. It is.

The Aztecs simply don't get enough good looks, they don't run offensive plays very effectively. Thames and the rest too often look like they're just winging it out there and relying on their instincts instead of set plays. There's so much more they could to improve their half-court offense, including getting Thames and Davis to really play off each other. 

Despite the shooting woes, San Diego State is passing every other test. But there are a lot of conference games left, including challenging road contests against New Mexico, UNLV and Boise State, who almost beat the Aztecs in San Diego. 

Is this team really ready for finals? I'm confident that SDSU will be clutching its Scantrons and number two pencils come March and will make a deep NCAA Tournament run. The biggest threat will be teams like Arizona that have highly ranked defenses like SDSU, but have more potent offenses. Is San Diego State up for this challenge? Can they ace the biggest test of this basketball program's life? I think yes. But we shall see.